A recently identified asteroid, designated 2024 YR4, has drawn attention from astronomers due to updated data from NASA’s James Webb Space Telescope. According to the latest findings, the asteroid has a 3.8% chance of colliding with the Moon — a higher estimate than previous forecasts.
The size of the asteroid has been narrowed down to 53 to 67 meters, approximately the height of a 15-story building. Earlier estimates ranged from 40 to 90 meters, but thanks to Webb’s precise thermal measurements, the estimate has become more accurate.
Potential Impact in 2032
Initial predictions had placed the possibility of 2024 YR4 hitting Earth at 3.1% by December 22, 2032. However, updated calculations by NASA brought that figure down to 1.5%. Now, with improved observation, the risk of impact has shifted away from Earth and towards the Moon, with a current probability of 3.8%.
Despite this, NASA emphasized in its statement that there’s still a 96.2% chance the asteroid will miss the Moon entirely. Richard Moissl, head of planetary defense at the European Space Agency (ESA), confirmed that their internal models reflect a similar collision risk of around 4%.
A Unique Observation Target
Asteroid 2024 YR4 is the smallest object observed so far by the James Webb Space Telescope. ESA’s analysis indicated that the asteroid’s surface lacks fine-grained dust and that it rotates rapidly — both uncommon traits among asteroids of similar size.
Astronomer Andrew Rivkin from Johns Hopkins University called the observation an “invaluable practice” for future asteroid tracking efforts. “This gives us a window into understanding objects of this size that may one day be headed toward Earth,” Rivkin said.
More data is expected when Webb resumes its asteroid tracking operations next month.
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