China’s economic presence in Central Asia expanded sharply in 2025, according to new government data from Beijing showing a significant rise in the country’s trade surplus with nearly every nation in the region. The figures highlight the growing asymmetry in China–Central Asia economic relations and raise fresh questions about the scale of informal trade, sanctions evasion and long-term regional dependencies.
Official data reviewed by Reuters indicate that China’s trade surplus with Central Asian states increased markedly in the first ten months of 2025 compared with the same period in 2024. The most dramatic shift occurred in Kyrgyzstan, where China’s surplus soared to $23.6 billion, up from $17.4 billion the previous year.
The number is even more striking when compared to Kyrgyzstan’s own economy. Government statistics in Bishkek show that the country’s gross domestic product for the first ten months of 2025 was approximately $16.3 billion — meaning China’s recorded exports exceeded the total annual value of goods and services produced in Kyrgyzstan during the same period.
Economists and regional analysts caution that this imbalance is partly the result of widespread smuggling and sanctions-evasion channels involving Russia, through which billions of dollars’ worth of Chinese goods cross into Kyrgyzstan without being counted in official Kyrgyz import data. These flows have grown since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and the subsequent tightening of Western sanctions, which have pushed some companies to reroute shipments through third countries.
Trade Surplus Across the Region
China also recorded rising trade surpluses with other major Central Asian partners:
- Kazakhstan: surplus increased to $39.8 billion, up from $36.5 billion.
- Uzbekistan: surplus rose to $12.9 billion, from $11.1 billion.
- Tajikistan: surplus reached $3.5 billion, up slightly from $3.3 billion.
The only exception in the region is Turkmenistan, which maintains a positive trade balance with China due to its large exports of natural gas. China imported more than $8.1 billion worth of Turkmen goods in the first ten months of 2025, while exporting just $784 million in goods to the country. Even so, total bilateral trade fell to $8.3 billion, down from $8.9 billion the year before — a rare contraction amid Beijing’s otherwise expanding regional trade footprint.
Strategic and Geopolitical Dimensions
China’s deepening economic role in Central Asia reflects both long-term strategic planning and shifting geopolitical realities. Beijing’s vast infrastructure, energy and logistics investments — many tied to the Belt and Road Initiative — have positioned China as the region’s dominant external economic actor at a time when Russia’s influence has been weakened by sanctions, war expenditures and domestic constraints.
At the same time, Central Asian governments must grapple with the dual pressures of benefiting from Chinese capital and trade while managing domestic unease about economic overreliance. The expanding trade surplus, analysts say, underscores an increasingly one-sided relationship that could shape political and economic decision-making for years to come.
Outlook
As China strengthens its economic leverage, Central Asian countries face the challenge of balancing immediate economic gains with long-term strategic autonomy. The full implications of these trade patterns — including their connections to informal markets and sanctions circumvention — remain a central topic for regional policymakers and international observers.