A bombshell analysis from the Institute for the Study of War (ISW) warns that President Donald Trump’s newly approved 28-point peace plan for Ukraine would amount to nothing less than “total capitulation” by Kyiv — stripping the country of its most critical defensive positions and leaving it exposed to future Russian aggression.
A Plan That Mirrors Moscow’s Demands
According to ISW, the proposal — first reported by Axios and confirmed by U.S. and Russian officials — demands that Ukraine surrender core elements of its sovereignty with zero guarantees of future security.
Key provisions include:
- Recognizing Russia’s illegal annexation of Crimea
- Handing over all occupied territories to Moscow
- Reducing Ukraine’s military to just 400,000 troops
- Withdrawing Ukrainian forces from all of Donetsk and Luhansk, even areas not controlled by Russia
Analysts stress that Donetsk, in particular, has been a crucial defensive shield since Russia first ignited war in the Donbas in 2014.
“Ukraine Gets Nothing. Russia Gains Everything.”
ISW’s assessment is blunt:
Russia has failed for over a decade to break through Ukraine’s entrenched defensive lines. Forcing Kyiv to abandon them now would give the Kremlin an enormous strategic gift.
“At current rates of Russian advance, capturing these defenses would take years,” ISW noted. “Handing them over would save Russia time, manpower, and resources — while Ukraine gains nothing.”
The think tank concludes that Trump’s plan matches almost exactly what Moscow demanded during failed talks in Istanbul in 2022.
A Peace Plan That Could Ignite a Future War
Critics argue that the proposal legitimizes Russian aggression, rewards territorial conquest, and leaves Ukraine unable to defend against the next assault.
With the ISW’s stark warning now public, the debate over Trump’s peace blueprint is expected to intensify — not only in Washington and Kyiv, but across the entire Western alliance.