AI SUMMARY – What you should know
- The New START treaty between the US and Russia expires within days.
- No replacement agreement has been finalized.
- The end of the treaty could leave both nations without nuclear limits.
- New weapons and China’s expanding arsenal raise global concerns.
As the New START treaty approaches its expiration, former Russian president Dmitry Medvedev has issued a stark warning about the future of global nuclear stability. The agreement, signed in 2010, is the last remaining arms control treaty limiting strategic nuclear weapons held by the United States and Russia.
New START caps the number of deployed nuclear warheads and delivery systems while providing for on-site inspections designed to prevent misunderstandings. For more than a decade, it served as a foundation for strategic predictability between Washington and Moscow. Its expiration without a successor would leave both countries free of legally binding constraints for the first time since the Cold War.
Medvedev stressed that arms control treaties are fundamentally about trust. Without them, he argued, strategic uncertainty increases and the likelihood of dangerous miscalculations grows. Although he stopped short of predicting an immediate nuclear conflict, he described the situation as deeply troubling.
Russia suspended its participation in the treaty in 2023, citing US support for Ukraine following Russia’s invasion. Nevertheless, the treaty itself remained in force. Russian President Vladimir Putin later proposed that both sides voluntarily maintain existing limits for an additional year, but US officials did not publicly commit to the idea.
President Donald Trump has suggested that the treaty could be allowed to expire in favor of a new framework. Analysts note, however, that negotiating a replacement would be significantly more complex than the original agreement.
The strategic environment has changed dramatically since 2010. Russia has developed advanced nuclear-capable systems not covered by New START, while the US is pursuing missile defense initiatives that Moscow views as destabilizing. At the same time, China’s rapidly growing nuclear arsenal remains outside any arms control regime, adding another layer of uncertainty.
Experts warn that the expiration of New START could accelerate a new arms race, eroding decades of progress in nuclear risk reduction. Without transparency measures and verification mechanisms, the potential for mistrust and escalation increases.
Whether diplomacy can adapt to this new multipolar nuclear reality remains uncertain. What is clear, however, is that the end of New START marks a critical turning point in global security.