In a striking and unapologetically direct assessment, Swedish-American economist and veteran diplomat Anders Åslund declared that the “ideal and most realistic scenario” for ending the war in Ukraine is a domestic uprising in Moscow leading to Vladimir Putin’s downfall. According to Åslund, this is precisely the outcome the Russian leader fears most.
His remarks, reported by Espreso TV, paint a stark picture of a war unlikely to end at any negotiation table — and a Kremlin increasingly scared of its own inner circle.
A War With No Table for Talks
Åslund didn’t mince words.
“Most wars do not end with negotiations,” he emphasized. “World War I didn’t end with a peace treaty — it ended with a change of power in Germany. This war is no different.”
In his view, Putin’s removal through an internal coup is the most plausible path to peace.
And he went further, suggesting that Washington plays almost no role in shaping the future of the conflict.
“An Ignorant President” and a Dangerous Vacuum
Åslund sharply criticized the current U.S. administration, accusing it of eliminating key specialists on Russia and Ukraine.
“The U.S. has an ignorant president who fired most of the officials with any knowledge of Russia or Ukraine,” he said flatly.
He argued that the less Washington intervenes, the better, recalling previous moments when U.S. leadership appeared willing to grant Russia concessions.
According to Åslund, former President Trump was “ready to give Putin the rest of the Donetsk region in exchange for something completely incomprehensible,” noting that Putin hoped to gain territory he couldn’t seize by force.
Europe Holds the Next Big Decision
The diplomat stressed that Europe’s support will determine Ukraine’s chances in 2026, with a critical vote coming at the European Council on December 19. The question is simple:
Will Europe provide enough aid — and will it do so in time?
Will Russia’s Elite Finally Turn?
Åslund believes the key to peace lies not with soldiers on the front lines, but with the Russian elite, who may eventually recognize that Putin is acting against Russia’s own national interests.
“Putin is harming his own people,” he said. “The real question is when enough Russians — especially within the elite — will realize it’s time for him to go.”
The timing, Åslund admits, is impossible to predict. But he sees an internal power shift as the natural endgame of the conflict.
Has the Countdown Already Begun?
With the war grinding into another year, shortages mounting, and political pressure building, Åslund’s warning poses a chilling question:
Is Moscow closer to an internal revolt than the Kremlin admits?
For now, the world waits — and watches.