Diplomatic negotiations aimed at ending the war in Ukraine have entered what American officials describe as their final phase, with only two unresolved issues preventing a full agreement, according to Keith Kellogg, the outgoing U.S. presidential envoy for Ukraine. Speaking at the Reagan National Defense Forum on Saturday, Mr. Kellogg said negotiators were “very close” to completing a peace framework that has been under discussion for months.
The outstanding questions concern the future political status of the Donbas region and the fate of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant, the largest atomic facility in Europe, which has been under Russian occupation since the early days of Moscow’s full-scale invasion. “If we can resolve those two issues, I think everything else will work fairly well,” Mr. Kellogg said, adding that negotiators are in the “last ten meters” of what he likened to a long-distance race.
Territorial Concessions at the Center of the Plan
Russia currently holds nearly one-fifth of Ukrainian territory, including all of Luhansk province and significant parts of Donetsk, which together form the industrial heartland known as Donbas. Moscow has insisted that any settlement must include the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the region.
According to reporting by Reuters, the U.S. proposal encourages Ukraine to cede control of areas it does not presently hold, as well as portions of the remaining territories of Donbas. Under the plan, part of the relinquished area in Donetsk would become a demilitarized zone, effectively freezing the front lines and limiting future military escalation.
Such recommendations mark a significant shift from earlier Western positions that emphasized the restoration of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Analysts say Washington appears to be searching for a pragmatic formula that could halt hostilities and prevent further battlefield losses, even if it falls short of Kyiv’s stated war aims.
Nuclear Oversight and International Involvement
Zaporizhzhia, a sprawling six-reactor facility straddling the Dnipro River, remains one of the most sensitive flashpoints in the conflict. An earlier draft of the peace plan envisioned returning some of the reactors to operation under strict supervision by the International Atomic Energy Agency, with electricity distributed evenly between Russia and Ukraine.
Following consultations with Ukrainian negotiators in Geneva and Florida, the plan was revised, though the details of the updated text — reportedly comprising 27 points across four thematic categories — have not been made public. The secrecy surrounding the document has prompted speculation about the degree of compromise expected from both Kyiv and Moscow.
Human Cost and Broader Implications
Mr. Kellogg also drew attention to the scale of casualties in the conflict, describing the combined number of dead and wounded on both sides as “horrifying” and unprecedented for a regional war in the post–Cold War era. He estimated that more than one million people have been killed or injured since February 2022, underscoring the urgency of securing a negotiated settlement.
Despite the envoy’s optimism, significant political obstacles remain. Ukrainian leaders have so far rejected proposals that require territorial concessions, while Russia has signaled it will not withdraw from occupied regions. Any agreement, analysts note, would need to navigate not only the interests of the warring parties but also the broader geopolitical stakes for Europe, NATO and the global energy system.