AI SUMMARY / What You Should Know Before Reading
- EU officials warn of a potential influx of former Russian soldiers once the war in Ukraine ends.
- Estonia has proposed a ban on entry for identified ex-combatants.
- Security experts cite risks linked to violence, organized crime, and intelligence operations.
- Identifying former fighters remains a major operational challenge.
Brussels – As diplomatic discussions continue over the future of the war in Ukraine, European policymakers are increasingly focused on what may come next. One of the most pressing concerns is the possibility that large numbers of former Russian soldiers could seek entry into the European Union once active fighting subsides.
The warning has been led by Estonia’s foreign minister Margus Tsahkna, who has urged EU partners to consider a comprehensive entry ban on identified former Russian combatants. According to intelligence assessments cited in Brussels, many soldiers may attempt to relocate to Europe after the war. Tsahkna described them as “extremely dangerous individuals.”
Background documents circulating among EU institutions estimate that approximately 1.5 million Russians have taken part in combat operations since February 2022, with hundreds of thousands still active. Analysts say prolonged exposure to violence, combined with reports of coercion and brutality within units, has created a population that may pose serious security risks beyond Russia’s borders.
The report highlights concerns that former fighters could become involved in violent crime, extremist networks, or organized criminal groups. It also warns that they may be particularly vulnerable to recruitment by Russian intelligence services, potentially enabling hostile state activities within Europe.
Compounding the concern are rising crime statistics linked to war returnees inside Russia. Officials note that the number of serious violent crimes reached a 15-year high in early 2025, following the large-scale recruitment of convicted prisoners into military units during the war.
Despite broad agreement on the risks, implementing a blanket ban would be complex. Visa rules vary across EU and Schengen states, and identifying former combatants—especially those using false identities—remains a significant challenge. Still, policymakers argue that failing to act could leave Europe exposed to long-term security threats.